Proceedings of the International Group for the Psychology of Mathematics Education · Volume 1
Torsten Fritzlar, Denise Resche
Universität Leipzig
⬇ Download PDFBayesian reasoning is a core element of statistical literacy but remains difficult even for adults. This qualitative exploratory study examines proto-Bayesian reasoning of 9–12-year-old students in a simple Bayesian model selection task with two bags and sequential draws of cubes with replacement. Using clinical interviews and probability scales, third- to fifth-grade students estimated and updated likelihoods after 5, 10, and 15 draws. Results show that many students intuitively adjust likelihoods in response to new information. The findings indicate that successful proto-Bayesian reasoning is possible in the age group studied and probability calculation skills are not necessary for proto-Bayesian reasoning.
statistical literacybayesian reasoningprobability estimationsprimary school studentssecondary school students